Canadian Political Spectrum Update

Canadian Political Spectrum Update

The Conservative Party - On the run with a lame duck Prime Minister, Stephen Harper can't even get a budget passed without loading it with Liberal incentives and bowing down to Liberal amendments. Does this mean the Conservatives are done for? No, but its becoming increasingly obvious that Stephen Harper will NEVER win a majority.

The Liberal Party - On the upswing because of their skilled new leader Michael Ignatieff (what a horrible name for a leader), boosted by Obama-mania and a sense of optimism, and rising polls that suggest they could win a majority if the Tories continue to screw up. The Liberals definitely have the advantage here because they can just make demands and yet have none of the responsibility of bearing voter anger when the Tory government screws up.

The NDP - Will Jack Layton ever stop complaining about the coalition? It didn't work. Give up on it for now. If Harper's government goes down and then the Governor General offers the Liberals and NDP a chance to make a coalition government then he can fuss about it. Layton is suffering from a bad case of sore loser syndrome and seems to be delusional that he will someday be Prime Minister. Our advice? Layton should learn to just play along and wait for an opportune moment instead of taking every photo opportunity he can to show off how belligerent he is.

The Bloc Quebecois - Boosted by all the anti-Quebec sentiment in December the Bloc are riding high, and the current budget widely ignores Quebec. At least Gilles Duceppe is whining about the loss of the coalition quietly and doesn't have any illusions of grandeur.

The Greens - Surprisingly quiet in the news lately. Maybe its time Canadians finally stopped wasting their votes on a party that will never get elected. Half of the people that vote for the Green Party just want "to make it an official party". That is the lamest reason to vote for a party! The Communist Party has been trying to become an official party for decades, that doesn't mean its going to happen.

PREDICTIONS:

The Conservatives won't be able to pass any non-essential bills and will continue to push through budgets loaded with Liberal criteria. We basically have a Liberal de facto government.

The NDP might try to merge with the Green Party in the hope of creating a party that actually stands a chance of winning more than 30 seats (and for the Greens this is a step up from zero seats). The Democratic Green Party? Its possible.

The opposition parties, including the Liberals, will start to make more and more outrageous demands whenever the Conservatives want to pass any kind of bill or budget.

Voters in Alberta will become disillusioned by the Conservative Party because: A) The Tories cannot win a majority; B) The Tories are passing Liberal budgets and are crippled in parliament; and C) The Tories will pass some Liberal-tainted bills that will annoy Albertans and/or the oil industry.

Stephen Harper (or the Conservative Party) will give Barack Obama a chilly welcome or make some kind of horrible gaffe that will harm Canada-USA relations and put strain on both Harper's fragile minority government and Canada's economic situation.

UPDATE MAY 2011: SEE The Canadian Political Spectrum.