April 28, 2011

Liberal and NDP merger predicted

CANADA - The Lilith News is going on the record to predict a merger between the Liberals and NDP following the Canadian election on May 2nd.

We are making this prediction based on surging support for the NDP, which has gone ahead of the Liberals in the polls and is now poised to possibly forge a coalition NDP/Liberal government and would signal the eventual merger of the two parties.

The Greens are so far behind they're practically non-existent.

With 4 days left until the election the current polls are as follows:

Conservatives 35%
NDP 30% and growing
Liberals 25% and dropping
Bloc 8%
Greens 2%

We predict the Conservatives will win a majority or minority government, thanks to vote splitting. We estimate over 150 seats.
The NDP approximately 85 seats.
The Liberals approximately 50 seats.
The Bloc approximately 25 seats.
The Greens 0 seats.

So initially the Conservatives will win a minority or majority government. If the Liberals and NDP join forces to form a new party they might have enough to form a majority government. HOWEVER, if the Conservatives win a majority the NDP and Liberals will have no choice but to merge sometime between now and 2015.

The NDP has made huge headway in Quebec, where they are now expected to sweep most of the province (which might place the Bloc lower than our current estimate of 25 seats).

Please Note! The above prediction is based on the sudden upsurge in NDP voters, particularly amongst women and young adults who are suddenly more interested in voting. Pollsters are referring to this as a Quebec/Facebook phenomenon as young people and women are realizing they could make a big difference in this election. Also many would-be NDP supporters often voted Liberal at the last minute, but this year it might be the other way around since Liberal support is dropping.

Young adults (18 to 24) typically don't vote, but they number 6 million and could make a big difference if the majority of them vote.

UPDATE: The Canadian Political Spectrum.

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