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October 20, 2015

Canadian Liberals win landslide Majority

9 days ago, after studying the polls and population distribution of ridings, we predicted a Liberal majority government. 170 out of 338 seats were needed to form a majority. We predicted the Liberals would win a narrow majority with 172.

2015 Election Predictions
Liberals 172
Conservatives 101
NDP 60,
Bloc 4
Green 1

2015 Election Results
Liberals 184
Conservatives 99
NDP 44
Bloc 10
Green 1

So. We were right in our prediction of a Liberal majority, but like many predictions our's was slightly off on the final numbers. The Liberals ended up winning 12 more seats than our predictions - ending with a strong majority of 184.

The Conservatives won 2 less seats than our predictions, the NDP a whopping 16 seats less, and the Bloc 6 more seats than we thought possible. And the Green Party was spot on.

The accuracy of our prediction was due to the high polling numbers we saw in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and other parts of the country. We correctly predicted the Liberals would sweep Atlantic Canada - we didn't expect all 32 out of 32 seats for the Liberals, but hey, a sweep is a sweep. We also predicted the Liberals would do well in Ontario and Quebec, especially in Toronto and Montreal. Lastly we predicted the Liberals would win an assortment of extra seats in the Prairies and B.C., just enough to boost the party into a majority.

We were wrong however. The Liberals did way better than we predicted, sweeping whole regions and strong showings in other regions. Total % of the popular vote was 39.5% across the country.

In other news we have a message for the horrible former Prime Minister Stephen Harper (aka, Harper the Horrible). It goes like this:

Na na na na
Na na na na
Hey hey hey
Goodbye!

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