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September 6, 2008

Polls suggest Obama will beat McCain 280 to 258.


There are a variety of pre-election polls available out there, but the most reliable is the daily Gallup three day poll. Every day Gallup polls hundreds of American voters and after three day tallies the results and posts them online.

As of yesterday Obama and McCain (a George W. Bush carbon copy) were pretty close, with Obama leading with 48% and McCain trailing close behind at 44% (the remaining 8% of voters are either voting third party or are undecided).

State by state polling shows a different story. According to the state polls Obama will win 280 electoral votes while McCain will win only 258. Obama only needs 270 to win, so a possible tie in Nebraska (currently going to McCain) and several other keys states where the polls are very close in an opportunity for either opponent to try and pick up some extra electoral votes.

Florida, which is currently 47% McCain and 45% Obama.
Nebraska, which is currently 45% McCain and 42% Obama.
New Hampshire, which is currently 44% McCain and 46% Obama.
New Jersey, which is currently 43% McCain and 42% Obama.
North Carolina, which is currently 47% McCain and 45% Obama.
South Carolina, which is currently 48% McCain and 45% Obama.
South Dakota, which is currently 47% McCain and 43% Obama.
Texas, which is currently 47% McCain and 46% Obama.
Virginia, which is currently 47% McCain and 48% Obama.

A number of the possible ties are currently in favour of McCain, making him the one with the most to lose if Obama manages to secure those states too. With 2 months still to go these polls are likely to change.

States that have been hard hit by the American Recession are showing Obama with a 10% to 30% lead in the polls. The failing American economy appears to be the Achilles' heel of the Republicans, and history seems to be repeating itself (in the 1992 election Clinton beat Bush Sr. on the issue of the failing United States economy).

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