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June 12, 2007

Voting Philosophy

If you vote for the Green Party or the NDP are you basically throwing your vote away?

I guess that depends on how much you hate Stephen Harper (aka, Canada's environmentally clueless minority government Prime Minister).

Stephen Harper was elected in January 2006 by fluke. His party won 124 out of 308 available seats. In order to form a minority government Harper has been forced to bribe voters in Quebec with huge payouts to gain support from the Bloc Quebecois' 51 seats which was needed to gain a voting block.

The previous Liberal government won 103 seats and had the option of making a deal with the Bloc, NDP and/or Greens to form a minority government, but Paul Martin decided to step down as party leader/Prime Minister of Canada and let the Conservatives form a government. Paul Martin had successfully led a minority government from 2004 to 2006.

Now here is the latest poll information, released June 12th.

Overall:

Decima Research placed Liberal support at 32%, the Conservatives at 29% and the NDP at 18. The Bloc Quebecois and Green party were tied nationally at 9% each.

By Region:

Ontario voters peg the Conservatives at 33%, the Liberals at a whopping 39%, the Green Party and NDP making up the remaining 28%.

The Conservatives also trail the Liberals in Atlantic provinces - 37% Grits to 31% Tories - with the NDP at 20% and the Greens at 9%. The Atlantic Provinces counts for 32 seats.

And in Quebec: The Bloc leads with 38%, the Liberals with 28% and the Tories with a mere 16%. Quebec counts for 74 seats.

Similar statistics are to be found in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and B.C. Alberta is the exception where the Conservatives are up in the polls to 76%. Thankfully Alberta only counts for 28 seats.



Note: Historically approx. 50% of NDP and Green voters vote Liberal at the last minute.

Which brings me to an interesting question. Who do you think is better for Canada's environment?

  • Stephane Dion, Leader of the Liberal Party, environmental crusader and buddies with Al Gore.
  • Jack Layton, Leader of the NDP, peace and poverty activist.
  • Elizabeth May, Leader of the Green Party, who is thinking of resigning.


So if May resigns she's off the table. Jack Layton has been in the NDP seat for several years now and has done a whole lot of publicity gimmicks but otherwise really a lame duck. (As a former NDP member I can say I am thoroughly disappointed with Jack Layton.)

So we're left with Dion, the guy who started the recent furor about climate change. The guy who stands up to Stephen Harper and presses the issue of global warming. The only one who even has a chance of becoming Canada's next Prime Minister.

So if we use the statistics above and conclude that 50% of NDP and Green voters will vote for Dion at the last minute then the Liberals should get 45.5% of the popular vote (compared to 29% for the Conservatives).

Note: The Green Party didn't win any seats in the 2004 or 2006 elections, despite the 665,000 people who voted for them in 2006.

If, and this is a big WHAT IF, the Liberals got 90% of the votes from NDP and Green voters they could get 56.3% of the popular vote and would be a sure win for a majority government.

Which would mean Dion would have the MP votes to push through laws and budgets that support Kyoto, support cutting greenhouse gases, and support creating a network of green renewable energy plants across Canada that don't pollute the environment.

And don't believe those Conservative lies that this will hurt our economies. Germany and Japan have the toughest environmental laws in the world and their economies are booming.

There has never been any proof that switching to environmentally friendly energy will hurt the economy. Its total hogwash. The biggest change will be to shut down coal-burning electricity plants and replace them with solar panels, windmills and nuclear energy.

How will shutting down coal-burners hurt the economy?

Answer: It won't.

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