Arctic torn to pieces as heat triggers landslides

Queen's University researchers watched in awe and dismay this summer as landslides blamed on climate change mangled wide swaths of a remote Arctic valley in mere hours.

"When a week was up the landscape had been torn to pieces in dozens of places. We were surprised by both the speed and the scale of the changes," said geography professor Scott Lamoureux.

He warned that such large-scale environmental upheaval could throw fragile Arctic ecosystems off-kilter by interfering with the flow of vital organic material and nutrients carried by water during the brief summer months.

"We expected this would happen in the future to some extent but to see it taking place already is a bit of a shock," Lamoureux said.

Lamoureux leads a Queen's University research team probing the impact of climate change on water quality in a 20-square-kilometre region at the southern end of Melville Island in the western Arctic.

The study began in 2003 and this spring expanded to include scientists from the University of Toronto.

The findings sound a warning for other areas of the Arctic, some warmer than the Melville Island locale.

Federal government surveys have concluded permafrost lies beneath about half the land mass of Canada, extending as much as 700 metres deep in the Arctic archipelago.

Lamoureux said the landslides were triggered in the last week of July after unprecedented high summer temperatures caused the permafrost on Melville to melt down as far as a metre, 20 times deeper than normal.

This excess water acted like a layer of ball bearings, letting the soil on top slide down the valley slopes.

"It was like a rug coming down and then piling up in the river channel in folds.

"Along one 200-metre stretch, it shifted the entire river bed to the other side," Lamoureux said.

Records going back to the 1950s show daytime highs averaging about 5C in July, but this past summer, temperatures regularly reached 15C and sometimes 20C, Lamoureux said.

"There were dozens of these slow-motion landslides. You couldn't see them move over a period of minutes, but they covered 50 or 60 metres in a day.

"One flowed down a good two kilometres from a ridge to the valley floor," he said.

The ecological upheaval most probably continued after the Queen's researchers left on Aug. 1, Lamoureux said, but he has been unsuccessful in obtaining satellite images to check on the final extent of the damage.

The geography professor said having before and after measurements of water flow and quality from the site is "scientific serendipity."

"From an experimental standpoint, we couldn't ask for a better situation," he said.

Also excited by the development is U of T professor Myrna Simpson, a specialist in environmental chemistry who joined the Melville Island project this year when the federal government provided nearly $700,000 as part of International Polar Year funding.

In her lab on the university's Scarborough campus, Simpson analyzes how carbon-based organic material ages differently in the Arctic compared to temperate zones.

"We're learning a lot of really new things," she said.

Mulroney urges more action on climate change

Former prime minister Brian Mulroney said Sunday night the world's countries should mark the 20th anniversary of the Montreal Protocol with a new agreement that will slash greenhouse gases.

Mulroney was in Montreal to deliver the keynote speech of this week's United Nations conference marking marking the 20th anniversary of the protocol, in which 191 countries agreed to ban ozone-depleting substances.

"It doesn't really matter whether the process is called Kyoto or something else, as long as we are addressing the urgency of global warming," Mulroney said.

The Montreal Protocol, signed 20 years ago Sunday, aims to cut down on emissions of chemicals that deplete the ozone layer, which shields Earth from ultraviolet solar radiation that can cause skin cancer and other ailments.

To mark the anniversary, the countries that signed it will be taking part in a conference that starts today and runs until Friday. It's hoped that the conference will result in a commitment to further reduce ozone-depleting substances.

Mulroney pointed out the Montreal Protocol has been called the most successful international agreement by former United Nations secretary general Kofi Anan.

The treaty is considered a raging success because it mapped a way to cut production of ozone-depleting substances. So far, 191 countries have signed this pact, and have phased out more than 95 per cent of ozone-depleting substances. One of the gases banned as a result of the agreement was chlorofluorocarbons, which were present in aerosol sprays.

Mulroney said as a result of the protocol, a large hole in the ozone over Antarctica is now on the mend.

"It was the first concerted action on climate change," said Mulroney, who last year was named by leading environmentalists as Canada's greenest prime minister. "At the end of the last century, it foretold the great global issue of this century."

There is much optimism among the participants that this year's conference will result in an agreement to ban gases called hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), which are detrimental to the ozone and contribute to climate change. Those gases are present in refrigerators and air conditioners.

The United States is pushing for all signatories of the Montreal Protocol to ratify an agreement to phase out HCFCs over a period of 10 years.

It's believed such an agreement would have a greater impact on global warming than the Kyoto Protocol on climate change because the U.S. has not signed on to that pact. Developing countries such as China and India are also exempt from Kyoto's pact to cut on greenhouse gas emissions.

Canada's Emission Remain at Record High

OTTAWA -- Canada's greenhouse gas emissions have stayed at a record high for another year, according to federal statistics showing that even a warm winter and more nuclear power can't stop our up-and-up emissions trend.

The newest national summary shows our greenhouse gas production in 2005 stayed at the peak first reached in 2004, slightly above 2003, and significantly higher than all previous years.

Our emissions are now 32.7 per cent above the target in Canada's Kyoto Protocol commitment - which takes binding effect in three months.

While we at least managed not to increase our emissions in 2005, Environment Canada says that's partly because we got lucky with a warm winter. We also reduced emissions in some areas by bringing nuclear plants back online in Ontario, which allowed the province's power plants to burn less coal.

Environment Canada adds: "Long term growth, nevertheless, remains large. Between 1990 and 2005 significant increases in oil and gas production, much of which have been provided to the United States, have resulted in a significant increase in the emissions associated with the production and transportation of fuel for export."

The Kyoto Protocol obliges Canada to keep greenhouse gas emissions six percentage points below 1990 levels, on average, from the beginning of 2008 through 2012.

Yet the latest figures illustrate the gap between the public's stated goals - telling pollsters we demand cuts in emissions - and the nation's real demand for cars, heated homes and manufactured products.

The upward emissions trend doesn't surprise Jim Bruce, a former senior official of Environment Canada now in private practice.

That's "because we haven't made any really big, determined efforts," he said. "We've taken a number of baby steps but not really big concerted effort to reduce emissions."

We can't cut fuel unless we re-engineer existing buildings to conserve more heat, and make smaller cars and trucks, he said.

"The Europeans are doing this, especially Britain and Norway and Germany." Some of these countries also have substantial wind power, and this week Britain announced it will dam the Severn River estuary to run rising and falling tidewaters through turbines that produce electricity.

"California is doing things. There are a number of developed countries and regions that have taken the bit in the teeth and are moving to reductions.

"What the Swedes did is a really a key thing. They rejigged their whole tax structure to reduce significantly income takes and other taxes and increase energy taxes."

Canadian figures comparing 2005 to previous years show that:

- People still aren't conserving electricity. Demand actually increased from 2003 to 2005, but greenhouse emissions fell when Ontario refurbished nuclear plants that had been idle, and shut down coal-burning plans. There was also some increase nationally in hydroelectric power, which doesn't produce carbon dioxide.

- Since 1990, Canadians have increased their emissions from transportation by 33 per cent. (The Kyoto deal measures everything since 1990.)

But within that category, emissions from light trucks and SUVs are up by 109 per cent, reflecting how sales of these popular brands have risen sharply despite our national commitment to use less fuel.

Most of the rest of the increase from transportation came from heavy diesel trucks.

- The growth of factory farms for pigs, chickens and beef cattle boosted emissions in the agriculture sector. As well, the conversion of forest and natural grasslands to cropland is a continuing source of gas emissions.

- Alberta is the biggest greenhouse gas producer (more than 230 million tonnes in 2005, or about 30 per cent of Canada's total.) Ontario comes second (200 million tonnes), followed by Quebec (about 90 million), Saskatchewan (about 70 million, much of it from fertilizer), British Columbia (about 65 million) and the rest all less than 25 million.

- Leaks from natural gas pipelines continue to be a major source of greenhouse gases. Leakage grew by 54 per cent between 1990 and 2005.

- Exploitation of tarsands is expected to increase greenhouse gases from energy production.

2005 (also 2004) 747 million tonnes

2000 - 721 million tonnes

1995 - 646 million tonnes

1990 - 596 million tonnes

Turning sun's rays into gold

DAVID MILLS - He's determined to get countries such as the United States and China off their nasty habit of burning coal. He's got the financial backing of two of the world's highest-profile venture capitalists, and the attention of former U.S. president Bill Clinton.

If David Mills gets his way, America's sun-bathed states and the deserts of Asia and Africa will become hubs of clean-power generation for their respective continents.

It's an ambitious mission for a mild-mannered Canadian – a former CBC camera technician from south Etobicoke and physics graduate from McMaster University.

But Mills, who left Canada in the early 1970s and spent the next 30 years of his career in Australia, moved back to North America in March to turn his lifelong dream – generating gigawatts of affordable, emission-free electricity from the heat of the sun – into a commercial reality.

"This is the most exciting time in my career," Mills, who turns 61 in November, told the Star during a telephone interview from his new office in Silicon Valley. "Better late than never."

Mills is founder, chairman and chief scientific officer of Ausra Inc., a Palo Alto, Calif.-based developer of solar-thermal power plants that, in his view, are poised in certain geographies to challenge the supremacy of fossil-fuel electricity generation.

Solar thermal power systems capture heat from the sun and create steam for generating electricity. The approach has existed for decades and, while cheaper than using solar panels to produce electricity directly, widespread deployment has been held back by high costs compared to conventional electricity sources and a number of technical hurdles.

Mills, inspired in the late 1970s by a scientific study out of the University of Chicago, has spent 30 years trying to refine the technology to the point where it can be scaled up to the size of a major power plant and compete on price with coal-fired generation.

This meant inventing a novel alternative to expensive parabolic mirrors and designing a simple system that uses commodity materials and has a way to store heat and supply electricity 24 hours a day. It's been a long haul, but Ausra says it has overcome the technical and economic problems and is ready to make history.

"We're considering many projects in many states at the moment, and all of them are feasible," explains Mills, estimating that California and Texas alone have the potential to supply 96 per cent of all electricity in the United States. "The amount of area we require to generate all of the United States' electricity is 145 kilometres by 145 kilometres."

It sounds large, but put into perspective, it's less area than the amount of U.S. land that's mined for coal. "It's also very small compared to the area of desert that's available," he says.

On a worldwide basis, the potential is huge. Greenpeace and the European Solar Thermal Industry Association concluded in a 2005 report that "there are no technical, economic or resource barriers to supplying 5 per cent of the world's electricity needs from solar thermal power by 2040" – equivalent to about 600 nuclear reactors or 1,200 medium-sized coal plants.

The numbers are probably higher today, given the advancements made over the past two years.

At the moment it's big talk, but some major players in the U.S. electricity sector are taking serious notice. Florida Power & Light, a subsidiary of FPL Group Inc., plans to use Ausra's technology to construct a 300-megawatt solar thermal power plant – starting with a smaller 10-megawatt project and expanding from there.

Former U.S. president Bill Clinton announced FPL's commitment last Wednesday at the 2007 Clinton Global Initiative in New York City. Ausra has other projects in the works, including a 175-megawatt plant in California that could end up feeding power to utility Pacific Gas & Electric Co.

A job notice on Ausra's website says the company wants to scale up its solar thermal deployment to 2,000 megawatts over the next three years, a fraction of the time it would take to get a similarly sized nuclear plant built.

"The whole picture is changing very, very rapidly," says Mills, adding that his technology is fast-approaching the cost thresholds for coal and natural gas, which in the United States are a cent or two below 10 cents per kilowatt-hour – and that excludes the strong possibility of future carbon taxes or caps.

"You'll be seeing 10 cents per kilowatt-hour bandied around Ausra, but that will drop very rapidly over the next few years."

The company is confident it can eventually push costs below 7 cents per kilowatt-hour at a time when fossil-fuel generation is getting more expensive, politically risky, and is encountering resistance in Kyoto-friendly communities.

"In the last six months interest has started to explode, and this coincides exactly with the cancellation of coal plants in the United States," adds Mills.

The competition will be intense, and there are many regulatory battles to win. Utilities are also a notoriously conservative, risk-averse bunch, and the strong lobby of the coal and nuclear industry is a force that can't be ignored. There's also the question of whether the transmission exists, or can be affordably built, to carry electricity from remote desert-like locations to major power-consuming centres.

Still, a supportive political climate, public anxiety over climate change, and the expectation that carbon emissions will eventually face some kind of cap or tax all work in Ausra's favour.

It was at the University of New South Wales in Sydney that he conceived of the "compact linear fresnel reflector," or CLFR. It's a design for a solar thermal plant that uses nearly flat rotating mirrors that focus the sun's light on a fixed overhead pipe filled with water. The sun boils the water, producing steam that spins a turbine to generate power.

Mills formed a company called Solar Heat and Power Pty. Ltd. to commercialize the technology, and while he did manage to build a small demonstration facility in a parking lot in Sydney, the business never gained traction Down Under and last summer the transplanted Canadian – at this point more Aussie than Canuck – began losing steam.

"I was very serious about retiring," recalls Mills.

Then came that call, that opportunity, which usually signals a turning point in Hollywood movies. Venture capitalists Vinod Khosla and Ray Lane, both partners with venture capital titan Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (the firm that made early and successful bets on Google, Amazon.com and AOL), were alerted to what Mills was doing and wanted to learn more. They asked him to visit California for a meeting.

"In October we went over," says Mills. "We clicked really well."

Shortly after Khosla, through his own company Khosla Ventures, and Lane, representing Kleiner Perkins, agreed to invest $40 million (U.S.) for a 50-per-cent stake in Mills' company, which changed its name to Ausra. Both men also became directors on Ausra's board.

The money started to flow in February, Ausra relocated its headquarters to California in March, and since then Mills has expanded his workforce from six to 70.

"It's odd. You walk in each day and there's somebody new. But it's exciting, too. The quality of people is such that it's a great pleasure to solve problems."

Alan Mills is proud of what his brother has accomplished, not just as an entrepreneur, but also as an individual who has developed a practical approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and slowing down climate change. "He spent his career bringing the idea to fruition and now the technology is ready at a time when it is needed more obviously than ever," he says.

David's other younger brother, Brian, keeps an eye out for news on Ausra from the sidelines in Etobicoke. The whole Mills family is eagerly watching the Ausra story unfold, knowing full well that how America generates power over the coming decades will have a direct impact on the air quality and lives of Canadians.

"This could be a great Canadian success story," says Brian Mills. "A Canadian-born entrepreneur, scientist and innovator with a major solution for climate change."

He describes his ex-pat sibling as an "interesting" character. "Even," he adds, "if he is my older brother."