By Suzanne MacNevin and Charles Moffat.
We are writing this together because both of us have changed our minds about what we think is causing climate change.
Up until now we were stern advocates that carbon dioxide (CO2) was causing global warming and climate change. We are here now because we are not officially changing our opinions on the topic. We are changing our opinions because we have both become convinced that it is Solar Cycles that caused global warming during the 1980s and early 1990s.
And caused the reverse, brief global cooling during the 1970s.
Our opinions have been changed because we started taking a closer look at the data concerning Solar Cycles and how solar activity from the sun effects the climate here on Earth.
It is actually fairly simple.
The sun goes through Solar Cycles, periods lasting years during which there are higher numbers of sun spots. Now that sun itself gives off a constant amount of heat - that never seems to change. Sun spots however, fluctuate wildly, but they do follow a set pattern, which looks a bit like waves.
The current solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, starting in 2009 and is expected to end around 2020. Possibly sooner because it is slowing down faster than expected. See the chart below.
In the chart below it shows Solar Cycles 22, 23 and part of 24. As you can see they are getting weaker and weaker. What you don't see in the chart below is all of Solar Cycle 21, during the height of the 1980s global warming period. And likewise Solar Cycle 20, which was a lot point - and the result of global cooling during the 1970s.
In the chart below you can see Solar Cycle 20 beginning in 1965 and ending in 1976. That was the period when scientists first started talking about the possibility of Global Cooling. (The Pink marks on the chart below show years during which there was an El Nino effect, which also warms the planet.)
The high points of Solar Cycle 21 (1977 to 1986) and Solar Cycle 22 (1987 to 1996) was the period during which the Global Warming discussion started to heat up. Unfortunately, solar physicists were largely ignored and the finger pointing turned to CO2 and greenhouse gases, which admittedly do warm up the atmosphere, but does not effect the temperatures any where as much as solar emissions do.
Solar Cycle 23 (1997 to 2009) coincided with a period known as "the Global Warming Pause", a period that started in 1993 during which the global average temperature (GAT) has fluctuated up and down, but hasn't made any remarkable increase or decrease.
Now we should note that some environmentalists deny the existence of the Global Warming Pause, ignoring the raw data that shows that GAT numbers are fluctuating up and down with no real increase or decrease in global temperatures.
We should also note that in recent years, 2010 to 2015, that the polar ice caps are actually expanding, regaining ice coverage in comparison to previous years.
Now we understand that people are going to send us hatemail about this. But to be fair, we've already been called all sorts of names previous that were worse with respect to our leftwing political beliefs. So don't bother. We've heard much worse before.
And admittedly it does feel weird, being devout leftwingers and making an about-face and reversing our position on the issue of global warming. We have not however changed our position on the issue of climate change.
Climate change is still happening. The big difference now is that we now assert that instead of global warming, that we should see a period of global cooling. According to a team of European solar physicists they are predicting a period of global cooling that will last from 2020 until 2070. This period will be similar to the Maunder Minimum that lasted from approx. 1650 to 1700, a period which was known as the "Mini Ice Age". They made this prediction by discovering the sun has a double dynamo magnetosphere which effects sunspots, and consequently made a computer model which predicts with 98% accuracy the rate of sunspot production. The computer model estimates that Solar Cycle 25 (approx. 2020 to 2031) will be so weak that it will cause a noticeable cooling in the earth's temperatures. Solar Cycles 26, 27 and 28 (approx. 2032 to 2065) will be so weak that they are practically non-existent, a period during which we can expect to see record colds, famine, food shortages, and wars over resources.
Historically, periods of extreme colds have been known to topple empires. Or make new ones.
So what about CO2?
Well, it still effects the weather and does contribute to global warming, but does it really effect the weather as much as we think it does?
Lets do the math.
In 1980 the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were 337 parts per million (PPM). Or 0.0337% of our atmosphere.
In 2015 the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were 388 parts per million. 0.0388% of our atmosphere.
That is a 15.13% increase in CO2 over a 35 period. Or a 0.0051% increase compared to our entire atmosphere.
So lets talk about why that number is important. A 0.0051% increase in CO2 compared to the entirely of the air we breathe. How much does that 0.0051% increase actually effect the temperature?
What we really need is a lab test.
1 jar filled with "modern air" from 2015. 388 PPM CO2.
1 jar filled with air from 1980 (or comparable to 1980 air). 337 PPM CO2.
Set both jars in front of a heat source, equal distance from the heat source and leave them for 10 hours, with no other sources of heat nearby. Wait the 10 hours and then measure both jars and see if there is any temperature difference.
For fun we should also have 1 jar that is filled with 100% CO2 and see how much of a difference that makes. And while we are at it, other jars filled with 100% other kinds of greenhouse gases.
We have seen this test on YouTube before. But the problem with the test is that in the youtube video they used 1 jar filled with 100% CO2 and 1 jar with normal air. What we really need is a test showing the difference between a jar with 337 PPM and a jar with 388 PPM.
How big is the sun's effect on the Earth's climate?
Well lets put this in context. The sun is GIGANTIC. The sun is 1,300,000 times the size of the Earth and is responsible for 99.9999999% of our surface heat. Without the sun the Earth would be a frozen wasteland. The molten core of the earth would also eventually freeze without the heat from the sun, so don't expect any help from the molten core.
Life as we know it would cease to exist if the amount of heat we get from the sun dipped a mere 0.1%.
Heat isn't the only thing we get from the sun either. The sun also has a double dynamo magnetosphere and behaves like a gigantic electro-magnet, with its magnetosphere reaching to the edges of the solar system. The magnetosphere protects the earth from cosmic rays which effect cloud cover. The sun's magnetosphere shifts constantly, as does the earth's own magnetosphere. During these shifts there are periods which cause the earth to be exposed to larger doses of cosmic rays, which cause more cloud formation and colder temperatures. It is theorized that these magnetic fluctuations and increased cosmic ray activity plays a major role in the creation of large scale ice ages.
The last ice age ended about 22,000 years ago and we are currently overdue for a new one, as interglacial periods usually only last about 10,000 to 15,000 years. We are currently 7000 years overdue for a new ice age.
The fact that the Earth's magnetic north and south poles are starting to rapidly move has many scientists worried that we could see a dramatic shift in the earth's magnetosphere. The north pole is currently moving at a rate of 64 km per year (40 miles per year). The south pole meanwhile is also moving - zigzagging its way north towards Australia.
As the sun's double dynamo magnetosphere fluctuates, so does the earth's. The magnetosphere effects sun spots and the amount of heat the sun gives off (which effects the earth's temperature), and a shrinking magnetosphere lets in more cosmic rays to the earth (which increases cloud cover and colder temperatures).
Unlike the Maunder Minimum (1650 to 1700), which saw the poles barely even move, the poles are currently accelerating as they move, which suggests something new is happening that scientists haven't seen before.
So we could actually be facing a double whammy of lower temperatures from the sun, and increased cloud cover from cosmic rays. The first we already know is happening, as solar physics is a well-established science that has been around for centuries. The second, cosmic rays, we know comparatively little about. Scientists simply have not had enough time to study the effects of cosmic rays on weather.
So to all the people worried about global warming and rising sea levels, we are sorry. We apologize. We made a big whoops there.
Our next big worry is global cooling, energy shortages, and food shortages.
That means it is ever more important that we invest in energy technology, such as
wind turbines and
geothermal energy. Solar energy is too unreliable. The sun and clouds are too unreliable.
On the plus side, as the poles get colder it will result in stronger winds. More storms too, but the wind means wind turbines will be a wise investment for homeowners. For governments, geothermal energy is the wise choice.
